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climatology

  • For years, I’ve wanted to get a personal handling on what xº feels like in C. For too long have I used Fahrenheit like a plebeian. I’ve come up empty on a solution for a number of years. Until now! I was googling around the web trying to find a chart from science textbook (or an app or something!). Lo and behold, Mr. Eric Carr saved the day! Thanks Eric. This chart is a lifesaver. A few words from his blog post on Celsius:

    For reasons that I’ve mentioned before, I prefer to use SI units whenever possible. For me, it’s about practicality — using SI units makes the math easier, since unit conversion requires few or no “magic numbers” to convert from one unit to another.

  • Marie Patino, Leonardo Nicoletti and Sophie Alexander for Bloomberg:

    A Bloomberg analysis of the use of primary private planes among some of the richest people in the world finds that Musk comes out on top. For example, his private jet took more than twice as many trips as Ellison’s in 2022.

    ​​The roughly 2,112 metric tons of greenhouse gas emitted in 2022 from flight’s on Musk’s personal jet — not the Tesla or SpaceX corporate jets — is a tiny fraction of the 8.4 million metric tons that Tesla estimates its customers avoided emitting in 2021. But it’s more than 140 times the average American’s carbon footprint and, to make it up, a Tesla Model 3 would have to replace an average premium internal-combustion car for 7 million miles.

    On average, a normal person emits about 4 tons of carbon per year. This asshole contributed over 500x the amount of CO2 in 2022. Some additional context, Musk is infamous for creating problems for himself, micro-manages his teams and can’t seem to figure out teleconferencing. Musk continues to maintain a ridiculous illusion that he truly cares about the environment and is concerned for the future of humanity. It is all a facade. If he truly gave one iota, he could simply adjust his schedule to be more remote-friendly or I don’t know, maybe not take a private flight every day. Musk is and always has self-righteous silver-spooned spoiled piece of of shit.

  • Measurable climate change has slowly been affecting the coastlines of the Americas for several years now. That’s no secret of course. Rising coastlines, ravaging seas, devastating hurricanes, and superstorms have been battering coastal cities and don’t seem to be letting up. Even, tourist island havens have been completely wiped off the Earth.

    It doesn’t end there of course. Even the Southwestern regions are having trouble keeping up with extreme storm systems. We’re nearing hurricane season, and due to a weakened arctic jetstream, we may see more extreme weather phenomena as more “blocking” events become the norm. Think brutal heatwaves and more and more frequent intense winter storms.

    All of that is separate from the larger story — year over year climate temperatures since 1972, has risen in steadily here New York. So, as a result, the region has now been reclassified as a sub-tropical climate region. As someone who grew up in Texas, it’s wild that NYC and the Lone Star State have climatological patterns in common. Granted, Texas experienced very long humid summers, while NYC’s summers a tad shorter. But that humidity, is particularly rough.

    Here’s more climate types documented across the US:

    Current as of February 2021 according to Wikipedia
  • A sand dam is a thousand-year old technique to collect water in arid regions. It has a surprisingly simple design that is constructed of rubble and cement. It has incredible agricultural benefits and can be constructed with very little ecological impact.

    A practical construction revolves around flood-prone or low-lying drainage areas that are dry in the off-season. During the rain seasons, they flood, so re-capturing these drainage systems are key. However, they should be permeable enough to allow for water to flow downstream for collection from sand — which if erected correctly can allow for water to be filtered of debris and in some cases very little water treatment will be necessary:

    Rainwater harvesting is integral to transforming agricultural yields and staying alive in regions where water can be scarce. The RAIN Foundation put together a wonderful PDF which has thoughtful construction methods, research and material recommendations. You can download the PDF here.

    For further reading, I would recommend visiting The Water Project for more information on sand dams.

  • Bill McKibben at The New Yorker writes:

    By one estimate, there’s about eighty trillion dollars of money on the planet. If that’s correct, then BlackRock’s holding of seven trillion dollars means that nearly a dime of every dollar rests in its digital files, mostly in the form of stocks it invests in for pension funds and the like. So when BlackRock’s C.E.O., Larry Fink, devoted his annual letter to investors to explaining that climate change has now put us “on the edge of a fundamental reshaping of finance,” it marked a watershed moment in climate history.

    He’s right about the financial future, of course—one can’t look at the clouds of smoke now obscuring the Australian continent and come away thinking that we can maintain our present course. But anyone paying attention—which includes investment-fund C.E.O.s—has known the score for years. What’s changed now are a couple of factors.

    This is impressive, and Larry Fink is completely right. “Climate risk is investment risk,” as he states in his letter. If we don’t start acting right now — we might not have an opportunity later. It begins here, with the reshaping of how we invest. Taming the river of money, will make considerable waves in the future.

    It wasn’t that long ago that CEO’s and leaders from blue-chip giants of the Business Roundtable were meeting to redefine the responsibility companies should play in society. There’s serious momentum, for the first time in nearly a century to re-think and re-model companies, businesses, and Wall Street — from the top-down. We’re entering an era where leadership is finally understanding just how important it is to put money where it matters most: engaging on middle-class wealth, diversity/inclusion and perhaps most importantly, environmental protection.

  • Here’s the tweet:

    That’s it. That’s the whole tweet. For additional context, this data comes from the HadCRUT4 dataset, a global temperature dataset compiled by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. Both are funded by The National Centre for Atmospheric Science in the UK.

    You can download a similar graph in a different format here. Here’s what that graph looks like:

    HadCRUT4 | For more information on the global sea surface recording organization, check out their Wikipedia page
  • It was only two days ago that the New South Wales Rural Fire Service warned the developing bushfires were growing in intensity and would generate its own weather system. Unfortunately, these bushfires were growing far too quick to be contained. In turn, these sorts of weather patterns become a repeating cycle: fires, wind, thunderstorm, lighting, and repeat.

    The Amazon fires had roughly 2.2M hectares burned, the 2019/2020 Australia Bushfire has burned 5.9M hectares so far. It’s a bit mind-blowing to draw a comparison between two very large numbers. The destruction of wildlife alone is enough to make your stomach churn, and the video really communicates the devastation:

    https://twitter.com/goodoldcatchy/status/1212755943102058501?s=21

    Most of the pictures of these bushfires and the pyro-cumulonimbus (sometimes referred to as cumulonimbus flammagenitus) cloud formations are really intense:

    https://twitter.com/merxplat/status/1213410879972114439?s=20

    According to Quartz, this is only the beginning. Climate change has radically altered meteorology on Earth, and we can expect these sorts of weather patterns more frequently in arid regions:

    As global temperatures rise, pyrocumulus clouds may become more common. A similar fire-induced weather system took place during California’s wildfire season in 2018. The state’s hilly terrain created perfect conditions for not only thunderstorms, but fire tornadoes. An unprecedented number of wildfires in north Russia and the Arctic Circle in the summer of 2019, as captured by satellite images, contributed to an increase in lightning strikes in the North Pole.

    To make matters worse, the smoke and carbon dioxide is stuffing the air downstream in Auckland, New Zealand and turning the sky orange. This is getting really bad, really quickly.

  • It’s pretty rare to come across shards of optimism nowadays. The internet has made me (and probably you too) quite the skeptic. However, this quick-cut of audio lifted from the After On podcast, features an interesting take on climate change from Stewart Brand, Editor of the Whole Earth Catalog.

    The theory goes: if it wasn’t for climate change, we, as in the entire planet, would not be discovering our shared humanity and climate change might be the catharsis for planetary unity. I’m not convinced that level of realization will happen over night, but I am hopeful that it could happen in our lifetime. We’ll see…

  • The New York Times reports:

    As Hurricane Dorian drew near to the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas early Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center said in a bulletin that the maximum sustained winds around the eye of the storm had reached 160- miles an hour, making it a “catastrophic” storm with “devastating winds.” 

    It is moving westward fairly slowly — 8 miles an hour — and would soon be moving over Grand Abaco. The bulletin said storm surge as much of 15 to 20 feet was possible, enough to swamp many low-lying areas of the islands, and that as much as 24 inches of rain could fall before the storm passes.

    This is pretty much a nightmare scenario. A storm originally forecast as a Category 3 or 4 has strengthened to a Category 5 in the balmy warm waters just south of The Bahamas. A weak jet stream, and unusually high temperatures of the waters have only strengthened the storm as it slowly creeps toward The States.

    The devastating wind and sustained rain is going to pummel the tropical islands before reaching Florida on September 2, Labor Day at 2am. The NWS precipitation forecast says it all:

    There will be widespread flooding, intense surf, and damaging sustained winds. As a reminder, climate change is real and it will only get worse and worse every year until we make systemic changes to roll back greenhouse emissions, and protect our only weapon in this fight — the rainforests of Earth.

    The full list of Category 5 storms (data from Wikipedia) as of August 2019:

    NameDates as a
    Category 5
    Sustained
    wind speeds
    “Cuba”October 19, 1924165 mph (270 km/h)
    “San Felipe II
    Okeechobee”
    September 13–14, 1928160 mph (260 km/h)
    “Bahamas”September 5–6, 1932160 mph (260 km/h)
    “Cuba”November 5–8, 1932175 mph (280 km/h)
    “Cuba–Brownsville”August 30, 1933160 mph (260 km/h)
    “Tampico”September 21, 1933160 mph (260 km/h)
    “Labor Day”September 3, 1935185 mph (295 km/h)
    “New England”September 19–20, 1938160 mph (260 km/h)
    CarolSeptember 3, 1953160 mph (260 km/h)
    JanetSeptember 27–28, 1955175 mph (280 km/h)
    CarlaSeptember 11, 1961175 mph (280 km/h)
    HattieOctober 30–31, 1961160 mph (260 km/h)
    BeulahSeptember 20, 1967160 mph (260 km/h)
    CamilleAugust 16–18, 1969175 mph (280 km/h)
    EdithSeptember 9, 1971160 mph (260 km/h)
    AnitaSeptember 2, 1977175 mph (280 km/h)
    DavidAugust 30–31, 1979175 mph (280 km/h)
    AllenAugust 5–9, 1980190 mph (305 km/h)
    GilbertSeptember 13–14, 1988185 mph (295 km/h)
    HugoSeptember 15, 1989160 mph (260 km/h)
    AndrewAugust 23–24, 1992175 mph (280 km/h)
    MitchOctober 26–28, 1998180 mph (285 km/h)
    IsabelSeptember 11–14, 2003165 mph (270 km/h)
    IvanSeptember 9–14, 2004165 mph (270 km/h)
    EmilyJuly 16, 2005160 mph (260 km/h)
    KatrinaAugust 28–29, 2005175 mph (280 km/h)
    RitaSeptember 21–22, 2005180 mph (285 km/h)
    WilmaOctober 19, 2005185 mph (295 km/h)
    DeanAugust 18–21, 2007175 mph (280 km/h)
    FelixSeptember 3–4, 2007175 mph (280 km/h)
    MatthewOctober 1, 2016165 mph (270 km/h)
    IrmaSeptember 5–9, 2017180 mph (285 km/h)
    MariaSeptember 18–20, 2017175 mph (280 km/h)
    MichaelOctober 10, 2018160 mph (260 km/h)
    DorianSeptember 1, 2019175 mph (280 km/h)

    Another way to read this table — in nearly a a century of record-keeping, roughly 30% of all Category 5 hurricanes have been recorded since the New Millennium.

  • As Hurricane Dorian quickly approaches, it’s time to revisit the hurricane forecast maps. We often forget that these storms are highly complex systems, that can grow and contract and can move across hundreds of miles fairly quickly. Shouldn’t our weather projection maps communicate that complexity? Perhaps, that’s a tall order. As an primer, this was the forecast projection map for Hurricane Maria in 2017:

    The great tragedy of these sorts of maps, is they communicate a very compressed amount of uncertainty. The paths these hurricanes can take can vary wildly around small meteorological variables. They’re simple and offer a condensed overview of the uncertainty of the storm (over time) without the baggage of demystifying a map legend and fraying model paths. While the cone projection maps condenses information, the spaghetti projection map illustrates the ensemble of projections:

    Both the cone and spaghetti maps are helpful for adjacent government planning. But neither really communicate the size or intensity of the storm, and that misinterpretation can be fatal — The Time reports:

    Studies show that some people misinterpret the map as indicating the hurricane getting bigger over time. Others think it shows areas under threat. Research by Hurakan, a University of Miami team I’m a part of, suggests 40 percent of people wouldn’t feel threatened if they lived just outside of the cone.

    The NWS does publish wind projection maps. Again, we’re looking at Hurricane Maria, which easily illustrates the destructive wind speed that pummeled Puerto Rico along its path in 2017:

    It’s instrumental to look at all the projections available to you, to collectively assemble a full picture of the storm ahead. This method of forecasting multiple models (known as ensemble forecasting) isn’t new either. It’s regularly used for tornado and severe storm predictions as well.

    Further Reading: